Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Dems need to win the "emotional argument" this time...

It is not uncommon to hear that the Republican party wins the emotional arguments while the Democratic party wins the issues arguments in American politics.  As a 60 year old cynic, I will parse that by saying exactly what it means to me: the Dems talk shop while R's appeal to fear. 

Yes, that is right, I am saying that the so-called emotional argument is an appeal to fear (and reassurance of those who are scared). Reagan did not get votes by talking about a shining city on a hill. He won votes by stoking fear of government, communists and welfare queens, and promised a shining city once they were dealt with. 

To counter the Republican fear machine, divert the fear to something else, namely, to the GOP.  

Socialism is one of the GOP's fear campaigns.  Crime is another.  Drugs are another.  Oil shortages, inflation, tax increases, immigration, gun confiscation, bad trade deals -- all of these are things to fear and the GOP will harp on them to get votes.  Fear did not keep Netanyahu in office in spite of a shooting war last week in Israel.  Fear does not always win, but it wins a lot of races.  

Alongside their fear campaigns, the GOP has resentment/hate campaigns.  They appeal to resentment against teachers, professors, scientists, scholars, librarians, philosophers, lawyers, doctors, pharmacists, accountants, statisticians, tech heads.  You name it.  If its a recognizable line of profession, the GOP doles out hatred against it.  They also dole out resentment against select groups of the laity: feminists, LGBTQ peeps, leftists, liberals, democrats, government workers, unions and their members, Hollywood types, bleeding hearts, environmentalists, and do gooders of all variety.  

To answer the resentment campaigns, liberals and Dems need to refocus the resentment onto our enemies. 

But I am here to talk about fear.  What the Dems need are a set of fears to discuss relating to the GOP.  I have produced a short list of things that everyone should fear in the GOP.  

1. They will force their religion on us all.  There was a bill in the AZ house last year that would have forced everyone to attend church.  That is the kind of thing the GOP stands for. 

2. They will outlaw abortion and contraception. 

3. They will outlaw alcohol.  

4. They will outlaw pornography.

5. They will outlaw stip shows, and censor Broadway and Las Vegas. 

6. They will force students to pray out loud in public schools.

7.  They will force public schools to teach religion. 

8. They will outlaw marijuana nationwide 

9. They will outlaw any and all criticism of (their ugly, stupid) religion. (Blasphemy laws)

10. They will create an ethno-state, with a class based society where Protestants are on top

11. They will start religious wars 

12. They will censor musical lyrics

13. They will ban all religions except Christianity and Judaism (just like ancient Rome)

14. They will ban women from the military, police, fire and medical fields

15. They will force religion into professional sports broadcasts

16. They will censor the libraries. No more reading Nietzsche's Antichrist.  No more Thomas Payne.  

17. They will outlaw LGBTQ everything they can 

18. They will outlaw discussions of history that they do not approve 

19. They will outlaw having an opinion of the behavior of powerful people 

20. They will outlaw public protests and demonstrations 

21. They will impose English as an official language 

22  They will outlaw gay marriage and unmarry the gays nationwide 

I understand that there is plenty to fear in the GOP already. The party and its acolytes are immune to reason, facts and logic. They are hell bent on getting their way, and no longer feel the need to acknowledge the legitimacy of those who disagree with them.  The leadership of the party is covering up a violent insurrection on the part of their most rabid followers.  The leadership of the party seems to have no goal in sight other than the next election, which their state parties are preparing to steal.  2024 is not what they are thinking about.  The party is a whirling and deepening cesspool of incompetence, corruption, bigotry and violent rhetoric.  I fear all of that.  But you can't run on it!  It's too complicated and dark for a political campaign.  It cannot be packaged in ads.  It cannot be dropped into conversation quickly by lefties at the water coolers of the world.  

But the statement that the GOP will outlaw all religions other than their own, can be dropped into conversations quickly.  The statement that they will outlaw all abortions can be, and so can the statement that they will force us all to go to church, or force religion into public schools, or force kids to pray, or force women out of the military, or force LGBTQ kids to go to forced reeducation camps.  Those sorts of statements about the GOP bigot party are the sort that the world needs to hear more of.  Lots and lots more, from lots and lots of us lefties.  So get out there and say this stuff. Add simple assertions like this to tweets and posts. 

The idea is to use simple stuff to create fear of the GOP, and to develop a whisper campaign against them of the sort they have been running against us for decades.  They call us socialists, gun grabbers, tree huggers, baby killers, PC, woke, communists and a lot more.  This stuff works and has taken over a portion of the center in America.  Plenty of left leaning types fall for this stuff.  Plenty of middle of the roaders are wary of left ideas like raising the minimum wage, or lowering carbon emissions, or taxing the rich, because they have been taught to be wary of those "socialists" and "baby killers" and "pinkos" etc.  

We need to make sure the persuadables in undecided camp know what to fear from the GOP. The menace of electoral fraud, or of electoral nullification by state legislatures, or of voter suppression will not work as well.  Most people only hear a little bit of politics a week.  Most people do not take in the news. The electoral stuff is too remote, dark and difficult to spark fear of the GOP.  But the news that they want to force religion on everyone, and outlaw alcohol and gay marriage will sink in and stay there.  

Win the emotional argument=win the fear argument. 


Note: I wrote this several months ago.  I am putting it up barely edited today, after the leak of the Roe decision from SCOTUS. 



Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Arguments Against Theism: Proving a Negative

An annoyance I often feel in theism versus atheism debates centers on the fact that atheists frequently do not work hard enough on disproving the gods.  I think that the correct approach is to induce total skepticism about the very categories 'gods' and 'existence of gods' every chance you get.  

Remember that your aim is not to convince the theist, nor is it to defend yourself (something rarely necessary), but to give your audience permission to free themselves from religious dogma.  You will not convert the theist, but you will learn how to argue your position more effectively, and give permission and ammunition to others by arguing in public.  So, argue. 

You can win the argument over and over again in the minds of your audience no matter what the theist says or does, because disproof can be quite powerful and hard to attack.  It can also be easy to remember.  It can stick in the heads of your audience until months later.  So, always emphasize the disproofs of the gods if you have some. 

A very important rule: Never accept the thesis that you cannot prove a negative.  If you do that, you cede the territory you should be standing on.  Never do it.  Of course you can prove a negative. The idea that one cannot prove a negative is a confused one. 

The difficulty of proving a negative exists only for empirical/inductive arguments. 

There is no such trouble for deductive arguments. To demonstrate this fact, examine the following deductive arguments. 

1 Gods are sanctified talking monkeys who live in the sky, but no talking monkey lives in the sky, therefore, there are no gods,  

2 Gods are invisible language users, but all language users are visible, therefore, there are no gods. 

3 Gods are invisible people, but all people are visible, therefore, there are no gods. 

4 Gods are people who can hear the unspoken thoughts of other people, but people cannot hear the unspoken thoughts of other people, therefore, there are no gods. 

5 Gods are unlimited in their ability to understand and use the world's languages, but all language users are limited to a relatively few languages, therefore, there are not gods. 

6 Gods are immortal, but all living things are mortal, therefore there are no living gods. 

7 Everything that exists is natural, and nature cannot make a god, therefore no gods exist. 

8 If Christianity is true, there would be people coming back from the dead, but no one comes back from the dead, therefore, Christianity is not true. 

9 If gods existed, there would be signs of them, but there are no signs of them, therefore there are no gods.  

10 Gods are sanctified persons who live in the sky, but no person lives in the sky, therefore there are no gods.

All of the arguments above are deductive, all of them are such that if their premises are true their conclusion follows necessarily. 

An argument can only fail in two ways: either its premises fail to support its conclusion, or it has a false premise.  These arguments are valid, meaning that their premises support their conclusions.  So, the only defense against any of them is to point out a false premise.  That is not easy.  When it happens, you must defend your premises.  

I like to discuss argument 8 above.  Nobody likes the premise that Christian immortality tales directly imply that there would be people coming back from the dead around us. The premise is true nonetheless, because if all of the dead people are still alive and heaven is a free and open society, then they are free to roam the earth.  If the dead are not free to roam the earth, then heaven is not a free and open society, meaning that heaven is not heaven, and thus Christianity is false on another front. But because Christian heaven is supposed to be heaven, and therefore free and open, it follows that some of the dead should be roaming the earth.  They are not.  Therefore, Christianity is wrong about life after death, because if they were right about it, we would see the effects of it, but we do not.  

Argument 9 above is essentially a schematic for an argument like 8, because the word "signs" is so vague it could mean almost anything.  It helps to put in a specific sign, like argument 8 does.  Nonetheless, 9 is useful as stated, because when you are arguing against someone whose world view cancels all value and authority in all other world views, you might as well throw hard balls.  And argument 9 is a hard ball across the plate.  See if they can hit it.  Argument 9 has two premises and a conclusion.  

If there were gods, there would be signs of them

There are no signs of them

Therefore, there are no gods

The form here is called Modus Tollens.  It is deductively valid, so, its premises fully support its conclusion. The only thing that can go wrong here is a false premise.  So examine each.  Invite your opposition to examine them.  

I believe that lots of people are too shy to talk about what they actually take as signs of a god's existence or agency.  Things like having a useful idea at an opportune time, sensing a presence in solitude, or talking to the gods can be hard to articulate and open one up to ridicule.  So, do not expect much effort from theists in refuting the second premise.  They do not believe it, they think they have the signs, but they are unlikely to publicly recite them.  So, their likely move is to try and reject the first premise.  They will assert that gods can exist without any signs of their existence.  When this occurs, press the meaning question, what does it mean to exist without any sign of it?  By sign we just mean effects, any effect is a sign.  If I leave footprints, that is an effect of walking, and a sign of it.  If I breathe, it disturbs the air around me, and that effect is a sign of my being.  Essentially, the theist has just taken the position that a thing can exist without having any effects on other existing things.  At this point you can try to chase the theist into the contradiction that a thing can exist without existing, because existence and causation are so close to one another that it is all but inconceivable how a thing can exist without having effects on other things.  

If the theist wants a special status for gods, such that gods are the only thing that exists that does not have effects, they have embraced the torturous thought that the most important category of existence is the one that is the most inconsequential.    

All of the above arguments are strong, but the strongest are 6 and 7.  6 is the easiest to defend, so let's discuss argument 7 first.  It has two premises. 

Everything that exists is natural

Nature cannot produce a god

Therefore, no gods exist. 

Again, if the premises are true, the conclusion follows with necessity, so, the only way to attack this argument is to falsify one of its premises.  The theist probably believes in some way or another that his or her god is supernatural, and that this argument does not touch on such a deity.  Their thinking involves a proposition different from the first premise here.  They assume that everything that exists is either natural or supernatural.  From this they reason that supernatural causation accounts for supernatural things, and natural causation for natural things.  Do not help them out by supplying that kind of clarity.  Remember, you are not merely arguing for yourself or for the sake of the theist, you are arguing for the freedom of all humanity from superstition based authoritarianism (i.e. religion).  

If the theist wants to supply the category 'supernatural' for themselves, start pressing the meaning question. Be sure to say, 'there is no such thing as the supernatural' when the time comes. If they insist there is, demand reasons.  If they have no reason for affirming such a thing, then you need no reason for denying it.  You have just as many reasons for denying it as they have for affirming it as long as you are both on zero.  If they give a reason, then you need one.  Also, if you have them on the ropes, and explain that the two of you are equally without reasons for your views, you can then advance your position by giving a reason, and explaining that you have one and they do not, which makes your position much better than theirs.  So, it is best to have at least one reason for dismissing the supernatural.  The best kind you could give would be one that demonstrates a contradiction in the concept of the supernatural.  

Argument 6 is quite strong and almost defends itself.  It has two premises. 

Gods are immortal

All living things are mortal

Therefore, no gods are living things 

If the premises are true, the conclusion follows with necessity, so, the theist has no choice but to reject a premise here.  They will not reject the first premise because their god is supposed to be immortal.  Their only choice is the second premise. But the second premise is hard to argue with.  It is an empirical claim.  To disprove it requires an example of a living immortal thing, just as disproving the thesis that all fire hydrants are red requires pointing out just one non-red fire hydrant.  If they point to a living thing, it might die tomorrow.  It is not immortal yet, in other words.  Indeed, every day it has to be checked to see if it is still a candidate for immortality, or if it has died.  That goes for their silly god as well as any other entity they might point out.  All of them are mere candidates for immortality, and will remain that way for all time. There is no day on which they prove their immortality, because they have to still exist the day after that to count as immortal, and after that, and after that.  Assessing the immortality of a thing requires an infinite progression through time.  So, the theist will never have their example of an existing thing that is immortal to point at, and so the theist will never be able to falsify the second premise. 

Meanwhile the skeptic is happy with his or her knowledge that there can be no credible counter example to the second premise of this argument.  And senses that it is almost safe to deem this argument not only valid, but sound.  

My point in all of this is to encourage anti-theists to make the effort to argue for universally negative propositions about the gods. There is no such thing, and there can be no such thing as gods.  And we can argue quite forcefully for that thesis, and even prove it. 




Chat GPT on Using AI to read Josephus and the Bible

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